Several times in the past we have discussed
what we refer to as the EOTS or "Estimate of
the Situation", or even the "Ghost of the
Estimate". But what was the "Estimate"?
Captain Edward J. Ruppelt was the first to
mention its existence in 1956, and he
described it this way:
In
intelligence, if you have something to say
about some vital problem you write a
report that is known as an "Estimate of
the Situation." A few days after the DC-3
was buzzed, the people at ATIC decided
that the time had arrived to make an
Estimate of the Situation. The situation
was the UFO's; the estimate was that they
were interplanetary! It was a rather thick
document with a black cover and it was
printed on legal sized paper. Stamped
across the front were the words TOP
SECRET.
The Sightings
Jan 16, 1947; Northsea
(BBU)
RAF pilot
of Mosquito pursued unidentified radar
target showing efficient controlled evasive
action at 22,000 ft speed equal or greater
than Mosquito, five months before the
Kenneth Arnold sighting. Also
incidents on Jan. 17, 23, April and May
also.
April
1947; Richmond, Virginia ((BBU)
Meteorologist saw a silvery disc through a
theodolite while tracking a pibal weather
balloon, traveling E to W at less than 15,000
ft.
June
24, 1947; Mt. Rainier, Washington
Pilot Kenneth Arnold sighting. Flying his
plane noticed source of the flashes; a
string of nine very bright metallic objects.
June
28, 1947; Lake Mead, Nevada
Pilots of F-51 fighter at 6,000 ft saw a tight
formation of 5-6 white circular 3 ft objects
off his right wing.
June
30, 1947; Grand Canyon, Ariz.
Pilot flying P-80 saw two gray, circular
objects about 8 or 10 ft diameter, diving,
which appeared to land 25 miles S of the
Grand Canyon.
July
7, 1947; Muroc Army Air Field, Calif., July 8, July 8, July 8
Series of sightings from the
secret Air Force Test Center, Muroc
AFB.
July
24,
1948; 20 miles SW of Montgomery, Alabama
The Chiles-Whitted case. A cigar-shaped
object with lights like portholes
approached head-on, accelerated, climbed
away.
Sept.
23, 1948; Los Alamos {Santa Fe?], New Mexico
Last entry. Los Alamos Scientific Lab
personnel saw a sun-reflecting glint in the
sky from a flat circular metallic object
high in the N sky. 1.
Papers and
Commentaries
Ruppelt's manuscripts tell
us which cases (Brad Sparks)
Typed transcript of letters
from Fournet to CUFOS and Mr. Melissine
(Fran Ridge/Rich Vitello)
Robert Todd's Letter to
CUFOS/EOTS/Fournet Letter (Fournet/Todd)
Project SIGN & the EOTS
(Michael Swords)
Early Top Secret Document
Discovered (Project 1947)
Project SIGN Report
(SECRET, 1949, in .pdf)
Air Intelligence Report
100-203-79.pdf
Intelligence Summary